German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is facing a confidence vote on December 16th. If he loses, as expected, Germany will have an election in February to choose a new parliament. That means that political parties are focused on the polls and preparing themselves for that contest in early 2025. Let’s have a look at how polls suggest that the election would turn out. They’re saying Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats would win only around 16 percent of the vote. The conservative bloc of the CDU and the Bavarian CSU parties would be twice as strong – with 32%. The business-friendly, liberal FDP wouldn’t get enough votes to be represented in the Bundestag. The far-right AfD party would likely achieve 18 percent. And the Left Party would fail to reach the 5% hurdle to score a place in parliament, but could still be represented by winning three local candidates. This remains unclear for now. A new party, the BSW, could make it into parliament. It’s polling at 5 percent with a blend of left-leaning economic policies with conservative migration and Russia-friendly foreign policy initiatives. Does this mean that Chancellor Scholz has already lost this election?
Pollsters also asked people what they see as the biggest challenges facing Germany right now: 45% see the economy as the biggest problem, 38 percentage points more than just a month ago. Migration is next, with 23% and the fear of war is at 18%. The big losers in this are environmental protection and climate change. Once named as people’s main fear, only 12% of German voters still see environmental protection and climate change as the most pressing problem.
#Germany #Germanelections
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