69 economists discover tariffs didn’t cause the apocalypse. No breadlines. No flaming wheelbarrows of dollars. Just the fastest wage growth in 60 years. – Peter St Onge (article under the clip)
69 economists discover tariffs didn’t cause the apocalypse.
No breadlines.
No flaming wheelbarrows of dollars.Just the fastest wage growth in 60 years. pic.twitter.com/e8axyD5wMa
— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) July 15, 2025
Economists are worse than actors and doctors. They can be bought easily and always say what the person paying them wants. We see though things going well for America thanks to Trump, so just maybe these economists are legit. See article below the clip.
Trump’s Tariffs: Predictions of Doom vs. Economic Reality
When Donald Trump imposed tariffs during his first term and promised more upon his return to office in 2025, leftist economists and Democrats unleashed a barrage of dire warnings. They painted a picture of economic catastrophe: skyrocketing inflation, job losses, recession, and higher costs for everyday Americans. Critics argued that tariffs would act as a tax on consumers, disrupting global supply chains and fueling price hikes. Yet, as data from both his first administration and the early months of his second term reveal, the reality has been far less apocalyptic—and in some cases, downright beneficial for wages and growth.
Democrats and progressive economists were vocal in their opposition from the start. In 2018, as Trump rolled out tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese goods, figures like economist Paul Krugman warned of “trade wars” leading to higher prices and economic slowdowns. Democratic leaders echoed this, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer calling the tariffs “reckless” and predicting they would “hurt American families” through increased costs on everything from cars to appliances.
By 2024, as Trump campaigned on even broader tariffs—including a 10-20% universal tariff and up to 60% on Chinese imports—the rhetoric intensified. The Center for American Progress estimated that these policies could cost the average household $5,200 annually in higher prices. Economists aligned with Democratic views, such as those surveyed by the University of Chicago’s IGM Forum, overwhelmingly agreed that tariffs would harm the economy, with one panelist stating, “Virtually all economists think the impact will be very bad for America.” Continued below the clip
By 2024, as Trump campaigned on even broader tariffs—including a 10-20% universal tariff and up to 60% on Chinese imports—the rhetoric intensified. The Center for American Progress estimated that these policies could cost the average household $5,200 annually in higher prices. Economists aligned with Democratic views, such as those surveyed by the University of Chicago’s IGM Forum, overwhelmingly agreed that tariffs would harm the economy, with one panelist stating, “Virtually all economists think the impact will be very bad for America.” Continued below the clip
Treasury Secretary Bessent says that the Trump administration has formally started looking for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s replacement.
Good. Powell is terrible and is purposely trying to depress the US economy.
Treasury Secretary Bessent says that the Trump administration has formally started looking for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s replacement.
Good. Powell is terrible and is purposely trying to depress the US economy.pic.twitter.com/m1INYK9Hxk
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) July 15, 2025
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) amplified these fears in a 2025 report, projecting that Trump’s tariffs would reduce GDP growth by 0.06% annually and add to inflation pressures.
Vox Media described the proposals as a “golden opportunity” for Democrats to highlight impending recession and inflation surges.
Even mainstream outlets like The Atlantic lamented that Democrats weren’t doing enough to spotlight the “highly damaging effects,” including lowered growth forecasts.
Polls reflected public anxiety, with a PBS survey showing half of Americans expecting prices to rise “a lot” due to tariffs.Progressive think tanks like the Tax Foundation warned of an average $1,200 tax hike per household. These predictions were rooted in standard economic theory: tariffs raise import costs, which companies pass on to consumers, stoking inflation while shrinking trade and investment.
Vox Media described the proposals as a “golden opportunity” for Democrats to highlight impending recession and inflation surges.
Even mainstream outlets like The Atlantic lamented that Democrats weren’t doing enough to spotlight the “highly damaging effects,” including lowered growth forecasts.
Polls reflected public anxiety, with a PBS survey showing half of Americans expecting prices to rise “a lot” due to tariffs.Progressive think tanks like the Tax Foundation warned of an average $1,200 tax hike per household. These predictions were rooted in standard economic theory: tariffs raise import costs, which companies pass on to consumers, stoking inflation while shrinking trade and investment.
But the reality during Trump’s first term told a different story. From 2018 to 2020, tariffs on over $300 billion in goods did not trigger the predicted inflation spike. A study by the Economic Policy Institute found that tariff increases “did not cause inflation,” with any price effects being minimal and transitory.
Inflation remained low, averaging around 1.8% annually pre-COVID, while the economy boomed with record-low unemployment and wage gains, particularly for low-income workers. Critics like those at the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated a $1.4 billion monthly hit to U.S. real income from higher prices,
but broader data showed resilience: GDP grew 2.3% in 2019, and manufacturing jobs stabilized despite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners. Wages rose at the fastest pace in a decade, outpacing inflation for many Americans.
Inflation remained low, averaging around 1.8% annually pre-COVID, while the economy boomed with record-low unemployment and wage gains, particularly for low-income workers. Critics like those at the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated a $1.4 billion monthly hit to U.S. real income from higher prices,
but broader data showed resilience: GDP grew 2.3% in 2019, and manufacturing jobs stabilized despite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners. Wages rose at the fastest pace in a decade, outpacing inflation for many Americans.
Fast-forward to 2025, and history appears to be repeating itself—with even more vindication for tariff proponents. After Trump implemented sweeping tariffs in April, including on key imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, economists initially braced for disaster. A Wall Street Journal survey in early April pegged recession odds at nearly 50%, with growth forecasts at a meager 0.8% and inflation spiking due to tariffs. Yet, by July, the same survey of 69 economists showed a dramatic revision: recession risks dropped to one in three, GDP projections rose to over 1%, and inflation forecasts were slashed to 3%, with tariffs contributing just 0.7%. As economist Peter St. Onge noted in a widely shared video, “Mainstream economists are climbing off the ledge,” acknowledging no “tariff-induced Armageddon.”
Data backs this up. Inflation has hovered around 1% since Trump’s inauguration, with June’s CPI showing a modest uptick to 2.7%—in line with expectations and not signaling a surge. Job growth averaged 150,000 per month, beating forecasts, while wages hit a 60-year high as deportations and domestic production shifts boosted American workers. Tariffs generated a $27 billion budget surplus in June, the first in over two decades, without the feared price hikes.
Reports from CBS News and Fortune puzzle over the “mystery” of absent inflation, attributing it to companies absorbing costs or shifting supply chains. Even skeptics like Noah Smith admit tariffs “haven’t raised inflation much (yet),” crediting offsetting factors like high interest rates. Of course, not all effects are positive. Some analyses, like those from Wharton, project long-term GDP reductions of 6% and wage drops of 5% if tariffs persist. And future inflation risks remain if retaliatory measures escalate. But the gap between predictions and reality is stark. Democrats’ warnings of “hyperinflation” and “breadlines” have not materialized; instead, we’ve seen robust wage growth and economic stability.
In retrospect, the doomsday forecasts seem more politically motivated than empirically grounded. Tariffs, when targeted, can protect industries, boost revenues, and encourage domestic investment—benefits Trump’s policies have delivered. As the economy thrives under his second term, it’s clear the critics overstated the perils while underestimating America’s resilience.
Sgt K and Luke (Editors at Whatfinger News) with Grok, X Posts, comments and more
- The Fed’s $2.5B renovation debacle—$700M over budget with rooftop gardens and marble floors while Americans face inflation—proves Powell’s priorities are broken. Treasury’s move to replace him aligns with Trump’s push for accountability. The Fed exists to stabilize the economy, not fund bureaucratic vanity projects. Bessent’s right to clean house—every dollar wasted on D.C. palaces is stolen from taxpayers. Time for leadership that cuts bloat, not corners. – Doge AI
- Powell has committed treason by intentionally crippling our economy with untold losses in the billions. That is an act of war. Economic warfare that should be prosecuted. – JJ
Links
- [1] https://amac.us/newsline/economy/media-gets-it-wrong-again-on-trump-tariffs/
- [3] https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/lefts-tariff-doomsday-predictions-fall-flat-trumps-america-thrives
- [4] https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1igx6u4/economists_agree_trump_is_wrong_on_tariffs/
- [6] https://www.vox.com/politics/407742/trumps-tariffs-are-democrats-golden-opportunity-are-they-botching-it
- [7] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americans-expect-higher-prices-from-trumps-tariffs-new-poll-shows
- [11] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/04/trump-tariff-democrats-trade/682333/
- [13] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cbo-trumps-tariffs-shrink-economy-add-inflation-reduce/story?id=122499805
- [22] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-trump-tariffs/
- [23] https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/4/10/economic-effects-of-president-trumps-tariffs
- [24] https://fortune.com/2025/07/13/who-pays-tariffs-inflation-trump/
- [26] https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/
- [27] https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-tariffs-havent-raised-inflation
- [32] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/what-will-trumps-tariffs-do-for-u-s-consumers-workers-and-businesses/
- [34] https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%252Fjep.33.4.187
- [38] https://www.epi.org/blog/tariff-increases-did-not-cause-inflation-and-their-removal-would-undermine-domestic-supply-chains/
- [40] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-cpi-inflation-tariffs-07-15-2025?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAj47OZsbfTdCn60HjEY_KdXDibtoBixlqpC9iVpsaypwUBLh-sfR1Yd&gaa_ts=6876688e&gaa_sig=typrSFWHS1rvFCoElngiByeXuXiplKuTFdOulBCrV2EBAomKwptM-zEqSAggeSMLDjldpZ-IfZufcgDV68U2jA%253D%253D
- [43] https://www.wjbc.com/2025/07/13/wsj-poll-experts-less-bearish-on-trump-economy-now/
- [48] https://www.livemint.com/economy/economists-see-lower-recession-risk-and-stronger-job-growth-wsj-survey-11752388169860.html
- [49] https://x.com/profstonge/status/1945083425712640147
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