Iran’s economy may teeter on the brink of collapse, but does that really threaten its regime? Monday’s flare-up of hostilities across the Strait of Hormuz makes clear that oil’s not about to start flowing freely again. Tehran and Washington both signaling they can bear the pain of lost revenue and inflation, with Iran arguably taking that brinkmanship further.
When missiles target the Emirates’ prized Fujairah pipeline which bypasses the Strait, it’s shooting at what was a favored hub for parking its cash and bypassing sanctions. We’ll ask about who feels more pain in the divorce with the same UAE that last week quit OPEC in part because it thought Gulf neighbors weren’t tough enough on Tehran.
The Islamic Republic knows its main nemesis, the one that killed its supreme leader, faces the pain of rising prices at the pump ahead of November midterm elections… but what about ordinary citizens in a nation where inflation’s what sparked mass New Year’s protests?
At what point is the regime in danger? A messianic streak, a survival mode honed over decades… those are factors. But Iran and its powerful Revolutionary Guards also rely on a vast patronage system. Behind the cloak of an Internet blackout, how’s it looking on that score?
#iran war #hormuz #trump
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