Ursula von der Leyen won only half the battle when EU leaders endorsed her for a second term as president of the European Commission in June. Now, she still needs to win over a majority of the European Parliament’s 720 lawmakers on Thursday. She is pitching herself as an experienced leader and could benefit from a desire in the European Union for a steady hand at a time when war rages in Ukraine and Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House in November elections could shake up global relations. Von der Leyen’s conservative political grouping, the European People’s Party (EPP), has 188 seats, the Socialists have 136, and the liberal Renew group has 77. From the outset, it would seem that she could gather the required votes from within the coalition. "I am not a mathematician, but I think, with the three center forces that are supporting Ursula von der Leyen and that form part of a package deal, we have the numbers," EPP spokesperson Pedro Lopez said last week. Neither the politicians nor the experts DW spoke with believe that it will be as easy as Lopez implied. There’s no guarantee everyone in the coalition will vote for von der Leyen. "It’s going to be tight," said Julien Hoez, a Brussels-based EU expert.
Since the vote is secret, it is important for von der Leyen to talk personally with parliamentarians, who can vote based on their constituents’ interests without fear of repercussions if they stray from the party line. While members of the European Parliament (MEPs) cannot be forced to vote for a candidate through a party whip, governments and leaders still try to influence the outcome. Should von der Leyen fail to secure 361 votes, the EU could plunge into a crisis at a time when anxieties are high and alternative candidates with sufficient bloc-wide backing seem nonexistent.
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