What is a prediction market and why are so many people using them?
On prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, people are placing sometimes huge wagers on questions ranging from the sublime (‘will Jesus Christ return by the end of the year?’) to the very serious (‘will the US invade Iran?’).
Gambling is restricted across many US states but prediction markets are not classified as gambling.
Their rapid rise over recent years speaks – some say – to an increasing nihilism among young men in particular, who feel they may as well try to profit from world events they cannot control.
Supporters say prediction markets are a smart way to make money. Critics say they are enabling insider trading.
So what is the truth behind their rise?
We speak to senior business journalist at the BBC, Mitch Labiak.
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Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Why do so many young men use prediction markets?
02:24 The story of Cameron George
05:10 Polymarket and Kalshi explained
07:12 When did Polymarket and Kalshi become popular?
09:45 What can you bet on Polymarket and Kalshi?
14:39 Allegations of insider trading
16:57 Can prediction markets influence world events?
19:59 Why are men so drawn to prediction markets?
